Population Dynamics, Savings and Economic Development in Nigeria
Abstract
The Nigerian government has consistently implemented economic and social policies aimed at enhancing the social welfare of individuals, which will serve as a catalyst for economic growth and development. However, the nation's low capital accumulation and rapidly growing population have rendered all of their efforts futile. Nigeria's current economic situation is not promising. This research examined Nigeria's population dynamics, savings rates, and economic growth from 1980 to 2020. This analysis establishes the presence of a long-run link between the dependent and independent variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The results showed that indicators of population dynamics are negatively correlated with economic growth, and that throughout the research period, both short- and long-term effects of population dynamics on economic development in Nigeria were seen. On the other hand, the adverse impact is negligible in the near term but substantial in the long term. Additionally, the study's findings indicate that Nigeria's savings rate had a significant negative impact on the country's economic development over the study period, both in the short and long terms. This suggests that the percentage of GDP saved in this economy has a negative effect on economic development. The findings also showed that, over the long and short terms, population dynamics and savings in Nigeria had a positive and substantial association. As a result, it is clear from this study that Nigeria has a low savings rate since the country has not been able to capitalize on its enormous population to increase productivity and the labor force. It is sufficient to infer that the Nigerian government must make investments in the development of human capital, as this would inevitably enhance capital formation and, eventually, contribute to national growth.
Keywords: Population, Dynamics, Saving, Economics Development, ARDL